- The flagship launch is the anchor of the year. Apple announced iPhone 16 on 9 September 2024 and iPhone 17 on 9 September 2025, both shipping within about ten days.
- A launch pulls devices out of pockets and into the channel, so secondary supply of the outgoing generation rises while it is still being valued at yesterday's price.
- Assurant reported that United States consumers received more than $6.4 billion in trade-in value in 2025, up 42 percent year over year, with $2.2 billion of that in the fourth quarter alone.
- The trader's version of the cycle is simple to state and hard to do: buy into supply waves, sell into demand peaks.
- Holding the outgoing generation across a launch means paying storage and capital costs on stock that is repricing downward.
Does the used phone market have a season?
It has several, layered on top of each other. There is one large annual event that resets pricing across the whole iPhone curve, a second wave driven by holiday gifting and the trade-ins that follow it, and then regional demand peaks that do not line up neatly between markets. None of them are secrets, which is exactly why the edge is in preparation rather than in surprise.
| Period | Supply | Price | What traders typically do |
|---|---|---|---|
| Summer, pre launch | Thinning. Holders wait for the announcement before trading in. | Firm on the outgoing generation, but on borrowed time | Clear inventory of the model about to be superseded |
| September, launch | Rising fast as trade-in programs open | Softening on the outgoing generation | Buy into the wave rather than sell into it |
| October to November | Peak availability of last year's model | Typically the softest point of the year for the outgoing model | Build position for the retail season and for emerging market demand |
| December, holiday | Retail demand high, wholesale supply tightening | Firming on well specified, ready to sell stock | Sell into the peak |
| January to February | Second trade-in wave as gifted devices displace older ones | Softening again | Buy, and reassess grading mix |
| Back to school and regional peaks | Variable by market | Firmer where the peak lands | Match stock to the market whose peak is next, not the one nearest |
Treat the table as a shape, not a calendar. Which week a wave arrives and how deep it runs varies by model, by region and by how aggressive carrier promotions are that year.
How do new phone launches affect used prices?
The launch date is the one genuinely predictable event in the calendar. Apple's own newsroom shows the pattern: iPhone 16 was introduced on 9 September 2024 with pre-orders on 13 September and availability on 20 September, and iPhone 17 was announced on 9 September 2025 with pre-orders on 12 September and availability on 19 September. Second week of September, shipping about ten days later, two years running.
The mechanism is a supply shock, not a demand collapse. Nobody wants the previous model less on 20 September than they did on 8 September. What changes is that a large number of people who were holding that model decide, all in the same fortnight, to hand it in. Trade-in programs are the pipe that carries them into the channel, and the channel has to absorb a concentrated inflow of one specific generation.
Assurant, which has tracked United States trade-in and upgrade programs since 2015, reported a record year in 2025: more than $6.4 billion in value returned to consumers, a 42 percent increase year over year. Its read on behavior is the useful part for a trader. Assurant found consumers "were more deliberate about when they upgraded, often aligning to major device launches", and noted that the average age of iPhones traded in during the fourth quarter fell to 3.76 years alongside new flagship launches and the promotions that came with them.
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When do trade-in volumes peak?
There are two clusters, and they are close enough together that the back half of the year dominates.
The first is the launch itself, from the announcement through the first weeks of availability, when carrier and retailer promotions are at their most aggressive. The second is the holiday quarter and the weeks immediately after it, when devices received as gifts push the previous handset into the channel. Assurant's 2025 figures show how heavy that end of the year is: $2.2 billion of trade-in value in the fourth quarter alone, described as the highest fourth quarter total on record, against $1.34 billion in the second quarter of the same year.
That is a real, published seasonal signal rather than an industry impression: on the same measure, from the same source, the fourth quarter carried well over half again the value of the second. What lands in wholesale a few weeks later is the graded, processed output of that inflow.
When is the best time to buy used phones?
Into a supply wave, and only for models you have a route to sell. The two windows that repeat are the four to eight weeks after a September launch, when the outgoing generation is arriving in volume, and the January to February period after the holiday trade-in wave.
The qualifier matters more than the timing. Buying into a wave with no demand plan converts a price advantage into dead stock, and dead stock in this category is not neutral, it is depreciating on the shelf. The models worth taking a position in are the ones with proven turnover, which is the argument in the fastest selling used phone models in wholesale. Where the stock physically goes afterward tends to follow established routes, traced in where iPhone 16 stock went after the iPhone 17 launch.
Do demand peaks work the same way everywhere?
No, and this is where a purely Western calendar misleads. Devices flow from markets with short replacement cycles and heavy trade-in promotion toward markets where a two or three year old flagship is a strong new purchase. The supply wave is largely set by launch cycles in the mature markets. The demand peaks are set locally, by school terms, harvest and salary cycles, religious and cultural festivals, and by when import duties or currency movements make a purchase attractive.
The result is that the softest buying window in one market can overlap with a firm selling window in another. Counterpoint Research's own reading of the sector is a reminder not to assume a straight line: it reported that global refurbished smartphone sales growth slowed in the first half of 2025 amid market challenges and macroeconomic uncertainty. Seasonality is a pattern to plan against, not a guarantee to trade on.
Should I hold used phone stock through a launch?
Usually not, if the stock is the generation being replaced. Holding across a launch means carrying three costs at once: the capital tied up, the physical cost of storage covered in our guide to storing bulk phone inventory, and a repricing that works against you. The device does not change. The reference price around it does, and it does so on a date you can see coming months ahead.
Two things change that calculus. One is a firm buyer on the other side at an agreed price, which is a question of how the deal is structured rather than of timing, and the mechanics are set out in spot price versus fixed price in wholesale electronics. The other is a destination market whose demand peak falls after the launch, which turns the wait into positioning rather than exposure.
Underneath all of it sits the same curve. A handset's value declines along a path that steepens at each launch, described in used iPhone depreciation in 2026, and its journey from consumer trade-in to resale is mapped in the mobile lifecycle from trade-in to resale. Seasonal timing does not change that curve. It only tells you where on it you are standing.
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Frequently asked questions
When is the best time to buy used phones?
Into a supply wave. The two that repeat every year are the four to eight weeks after a September flagship launch, when the outgoing generation arrives in volume through trade-in programs, and the January to February period after the holiday wave. Both only work if you already have a route to sell the models you are buying.
How do new phone launches affect used prices?
A launch is a supply shock rather than a demand collapse. Large numbers of holders trade in the previous model within the same few weeks, so the channel absorbs a concentrated inflow of one generation and pricing on that generation softens. Apple announced iPhone 16 on 9 September 2024 and iPhone 17 on 9 September 2025, so the date is visible months in advance.
When do trade-in volumes peak?
Around the September launch, and again across the holiday quarter and the weeks following it. Assurant reported that United States consumers received $2.2 billion in trade-in value in the fourth quarter of 2025, its highest fourth quarter on record, against $1.34 billion in the second quarter of the same year.
Should I hold used phone stock through a launch?
Usually not, if the stock is the generation being replaced. Holding across a launch carries three costs at once: tied up capital, physical storage, and a repricing that runs against you on a date you can see coming. A firm buyer at an agreed price, or a destination market whose demand peak falls after the launch, are the two cases that change it.
Do used phone prices change seasonally?
Yes, and the seasonality is supply led. Prices soften when trade-in waves push a generation into the channel, and firm when retail demand peaks or when supply thins ahead of a launch. Regional demand cycles do not line up with each other, so a soft buying window in one market can coincide with a firm selling window in another.