How Used iPhones Lose Value: Depreciation in the Wholesale Market

The short answer

Used iPhones lose value along a three-phase curve: a steep drop in the first year after launch, a long mid-life plateau where prices ease down slowly, and a final cliff as software support ends. According to SellCell's resale data, the iPhone 16 retained about 51.5 percent of its value after twelve months, meaning it lost roughly half, and each recent generation has retained a little less than the one before. New launches, promotional trade-in waves, carrier locks, and condition grade all speed the fall. For a wholesale trader, the practical skill is reading a price list against where each model sits on that curve, because the stage explains the price.

Who this guide is for

A consumer wants to know the best week to trade in one phone. A wholesale trader wants to know where an entire model sits on its value curve, because that determines what a lot is worth, how fast it will keep falling, and whether to buy, hold, or move it now. This guide is written for the second reader: someone reading, building, or negotiating an iPhone price list. It sits alongside the model-by-model view in wholesale iPhone trading in 2026 and the sourcing mechanics in how to buy iPhones wholesale.

One framing note before the numbers. The published figures below come from consumer resale and trade-in data, which is the most transparent depreciation data available. Wholesale lot prices are not the same as consumer trade-in prices: they sit lower and they move faster, because the trade buys ahead of the retail curve. Use the published percentages to understand the shape and speed of depreciation, not as a wholesale price sheet. There is no substitute for live quotes on the exact models and grades you trade.

The shape of the curve

An iPhone's value does not fall in a straight line. It drops steeply in year one, flattens into a long mid-life plateau, then falls off a cliff when software support ends. Knowing which phase a model is in tells you what its price will do next.

The launch-year drop is the steepest stretch. A device loses a large share of its value in the first twelve months as the next generation looms and early adopters trade in. The mid-life plateau follows: through years two and three the price eases down gently, and this is where much of the wholesale trade lives, because supply is deep and demand is steady. Then comes the end-of-support cliff: once a model stops receiving iOS updates, it loses app compatibility and security standing, and its value falls sharply toward a parts-and-budget floor. The same model that shed value fast, then held steady for two years, drops hard again at the end. That whole arc, from first sale to final resale, is the lifecycle mapped in from trade-in to resale.

What the resale data shows

Published resale data puts numbers on the launch-year drop. According to SellCell, recent iPhones lose roughly half their value in the first year, and each generation has been retaining slightly less than the last.

SellCell, which tracks resale using real-time trade-in pricing from more than 40 US buyback companies, reported that the iPhone 16 retained about 51.5 percent of its value after twelve months. Its earlier data showed the iPhone 15 losing about 48.2 percent over twelve months, the iPhone 14 about 47.7 percent, and the iPhone 13 about 46.2 percent. SellCell also found that value retention has been sliding by roughly 5 percent per generation since the iPhone 12, meaning newer models have tended to depreciate a little faster than their predecessors, not slower.

The early weeks are even more dramatic. SellCell reported that the iPhone 17 series averaged about 34.6 percent depreciation after its first ten weeks, an improvement on the iPhone 16 range, which was down about 39 percent at the same point a year earlier, while the iPhone 15 series remained the strongest recent performer at about 31.9 percent after ten weeks. The steepest recent case SellCell flagged was the iPhone Air, which it reported averaging about 44.3 percent depreciation across storage configurations in its first ten weeks, the worst early performance of any recent iPhone. Cross-brand, SellCell reported Samsung's Galaxy S23 losing about 61.1 percent over twelve months versus the S22's 66.7 percent, which is why iPhones are generally treated as the stronger value hold.

Read those figures as the shape and speed of the launch-year drop, not as wholesale prices. They confirm two things a trader already feels: an iPhone sheds close to half its value in year one, and the pace has been getting slightly faster with each generation.

What accelerates depreciation

Four forces push a used iPhone down the curve faster: a new model launch, trade-in promotions that flood supply, carrier lock status, and condition grade. Each one is something a trader can see coming and price around.

• New model launches. The September announcement resets the whole ladder. The moment a new generation lands, every older model steps down as attention and trade-ins shift, so the weeks around launch are the fastest-moving on the curve.
• Trade-in promotions. Carrier and retailer promotions that offer large trade-in credit pull a wave of used devices into the channel at once. That surge of supply pushes wholesale prices down independent of the calendar, and the effect concentrates where the promotion targets.
• Carrier lock status. A carrier-locked device sells into a narrower buyer pool than an unlocked one and therefore carries a lower price and faster decay. Lock status is one of the first things a price list should separate.
• Condition grade. Depreciation is not uniform across grades. As a model ages, the spread between a Grade A and a lower-grade unit widens, so grade increasingly drives price the further down the curve a model sits.

Why Pro models hold value differently

Pro and Pro Max models generally hold value better than the base models of the same generation, because demand for them stays stronger for longer. The published curve figures above are lineup averages and do not isolate Pro variants, so treat any specific Pro retention number with caution unless it is separately sourced.

Within a single generation, the premium tiers tend to depreciate more slowly than the standard model. The reasoning is demand-side: the larger displays, better cameras, and higher storage ceilings keep Pro variants desirable well into the mid-life plateau, and constrained supply of the top configurations supports their price. That is a real and widely observed pattern, and it is worth pricing into a list. The honest caveat is that the SellCell figures cited above are reported as lineup or series averages and do not break out Pro versus base retention separately, so this section describes a directional tendency, not a specific attributed percentage. If you need a Pro-specific number, source it directly rather than inferring it from a lineup average.

Timing buys around the launch cycle

Because the September launch resets the whole ladder, the weeks around it are when stock rotates and prices reprice hardest. Traders who track where last year's stock goes can position ahead of the move.

The annual launch is the single most predictable event on the curve. When the new generation arrives, the prior flagship steps down into the value that the model below it held, and so on down the ladder, while a wave of trade-ins deepens supply of the older models. Where that displaced stock actually flows, and how the channel absorbs it, is traced in where the iPhone 16 stock went after the iPhone 17 launch. The lesson for buying is that the launch window is both the fastest-falling and the most liquid moment of the year, which makes timing a decision rather than an accident.

Spot pricing versus fixed pricing

On a fast-moving curve, whether you trade at spot or at a fixed price changes who carries the depreciation risk. Spot tracks the market down in real time; a fixed price locks a number that the curve may overtake.

Depreciation is exactly why the spot-versus-fixed question matters. A spot price moves with the market, so both sides trade at today's level and the depreciation risk between agreement and delivery is small. A fixed price, agreed for a future window, transfers that risk: if the model drops faster than expected, the buyer overpays; if it holds, the seller left money on the table. The steeper the phase of the curve, the more that difference bites, which is why launch-window deals are so often quoted at spot. The full mechanics are in spot price versus fixed price.

How to read a price list against the curve

A price list is only meaningful once you place each model on its curve. The same figure is a bargain, a fair mid-life price, or an overpay depending on the stage, the grade, and the lock status behind it.

Put the four ideas together and a list starts to read itself. First, locate each model's phase: fresh off launch and still falling fast, mid-life and stable, or near end of support and about to drop. Second, adjust for the accelerators: is a launch imminent, is there a trade-in promotion flooding this exact model, is the price for locked or unlocked, and what grade is it. Third, sanity-check the direction of travel: a price that looks cheap on a model entering its end-of-support cliff is not cheap, and a price that looks high on a Pro model holding its plateau may be fair. A living market-data reference for these moves lives on the market data page. The number on the page is the start of the analysis, not the end of it.